Huge Game Tonight Against Wisconsin
Just some quick thoughts from me. Be sure to visit Steven’s site for a thorough breakdown on Wisconsin’s roster and what to expect from their starting lineup and to LiveBlog during the game.
- During the entire Bo Ryan era at Wisconsin, the Badgers have only lost 11 games at home. That’s just stupid wicked sick. It’s also good for a greater-than-.900 winning percentage. Basically, the Badgers don’t lose at home.
- If you thought Herb Sendek’s offense was slow, get ready for the ultimate slowdown offense. Out of 345 Division I teams, Wisconsin is 342nd in pace, averaging just under 62 possessions a game. State, by contrast, is closer to the middle of the pack at 174th and exactly 68 possessions per game. One of the keys tonight will be imposing a faster tempo on Wisconsin through tough defense, steals, and defensive rebounds. Which brings us to our next point…
- They are really, really good on the boards. Coincidentally, State is really, really bad on the boards. I’m hoping rebounding was a point of emphasis heading into this game, but something tells me it will be the same ol’ story it’s been. State will likely get killed on the glass tonight, meaning it will need to cash in the points they can and hit shots to limit the disparity in possessions between the Pack and the Badgers.
- If there’s an exploitable weakness, it’s probably beyond the arc. They’re below average from three and conversely don’t defend it well, so if the Pack can get Wisconsin into a three-point-shooting competition, it stands a chance.
- Of course our freshmen trio will need to play lights out, but more importantly, play smart. They can’t let a run by the Badgers result in an extended drought like the one that occurred against Georgetown. Javier Gonzalez’s senior leadership will need to manifest itself.
- KenPom gives us a 20% chance. I’ll take those odds, given fewer than 10% of teams win at the Kohl’s Center.
Here’s the partial Wisconsin scouting report from KenPom.com
Scouting Report (?)
Stats include games through Tuesday, November 30
against D-I teams only
|Adj. Efficiency:||112.7 23||90.0 23||100.1|
|Adj. Tempo:||61.6 342||68.0|
|Effective FG%:||49.9 135||44.3 64||48.5|
|Turnover %:||15.3 8||20.3 199||21.2|
|Off. Reb. %:||39.4 35||27.9 50||32.7|
|FTA/FGA:||26.6 319||29.0 48||38.7|
|3P%:||32.0 219||35.1 207||33.9|
|2P%:||50.9 87||40.4 22||47.4|
|FT%:||81.3 3||70.9 243||68.0|
|Block%:||5.5 26||11.3 102||9.4|
|Steal%:||7.5 47||7.8 274||9.8|
|3PA/FGA:||35.7 115||31.6 140||33.1|
|A/FGM:||58.9 79||43.5 31||53.9|
|Defensive Fingerprint:||Mostly Man|
|Point Distribution (% of total points)|
|3-Pointers:||28.2 141||30.6 97||27.3|
|2-Pointers:||54.0 115||50.6 183||51.4|
|Free Throws:||17.8 281||18.8 246||21.3|